He Grew Up In An Indiana Town

Above: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) in his Washington, D.C. office in August 2007. Photo courtesy of www.nytimes.com.

Not sure if he had a "good looking momma, who never was around" (thank you, Tom Petty), but the second of our profiles of potential running mates for the Anointed Illinoisan focuses on the junior senator from Ohio's Hoosier neighbor.

Name: Birch Evans Bayh III (a.k.a. Evan Bayh)
Age: 52
Resume: Long. Son of Senator and sometime presidential contender Birch Bayh, Former Indiana Secretary of State (1987-1989), Former Governor of Indiana (1988-1996), Indiana Senator (1998-Present).

Source of Speculation: Many, including Evan Bayh himself (for two weeks, at least), felt that the Senator from Indiana possessed the "right stuff" to make a bid for the Casa Blanca. When his short-lived candidacy died a quiet death, Bayh did the sensible thing and threw his support to that moment's surefire winner: Hillary Clinton.


Though a funny thing happened on the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., for Bayh and his chosen surrogate, he nonetheless remains a popular name in Democratic circles for Obama's wingman. Being elected to statewide office in a solidly red state--not once, not twice, but five times--as a pro-choice, pro-labor Democrat is no small feat. In addition, the CW (conventional wisdom for the uninitiated) forming about Obama's selection is that he/she ought to come from Sen. Clinton's camp, in order to salve the wounds from the primary. Check.


Backstory: If ever the Democrats had a Boy Scout in their tent, this guy is it. He entered the political fray at the tender age of 30, and has yet to lose in a statewide contest. Like Kathleen Sebelius, his long record of balancing a somewhat liberal (by heartland standards) social agenda with a fiscally conservative approach to government spending and taxation make him a model for Democrats is less-than-ideal political climates nationwide. If Reagan was the Teflon candidate, Bayh has made himself the WD-40 Hoosier: useful in a variety of circumstances, albeit accompanied by that somewhat-unpleasant odor of progressivity.

Ohio Connection: Other than the occasional shared media market, there is not a great deal that ties Bayh to the Buckeye State. That said, however, he was born very close to the Ohio border, and many of the economic troubles facing Ohio (dependence on lagging industries, high export rates for educated workers, and the like) are also present in Bayh's Indiana. He's shown an ability to "speak the language" in a tough Midwestern state for Democrats, and his squeaky-clean image and aw shucks attitude will play well here.

Odds: 20 to 1. The strategy Obama's bright minds seem to be developing for the general election places an emphasis on keeping McCain on the defensive in places he would not normally have to be so, and bleeding him dry there. Indiana hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since 1964, and is the epitome of a red state. Selecting Bayh, who is very popular there, would definitely put the state in play. Coupled with Obama's planned spending edge, and his reach into Indiana through the Chicago media market, it becomes likely that Obama wins Indiana with Bayh on the ticket. Obama should want nothing more, as subtracting Indiana's 11 electoral votes from McCain's column would spell serious trouble for the Old Man from Sedona.

That said, Bayh is only a middle of the pack contender for the Beta position because, despite his perfect hair and teeth and middle of the road positions, he is not very well known outside Indiana. MSNBC's Chuck Todd, quoting a Dem superdelegate, put it very well: "He's vanilla ice cream (which isn't memorable), but you never are disappointed with vanilla." The other truth about vanilla that Chuck's source is missing here is that rarely does vanilla give you heartburn. What do I mean? As I noted in my Sebelius profile, a Vice Presidential candidate should be the campaign's fireballer, and nothing in Bayh's profile shows he has that capability.

The "Andy Griffith" choice (he reminds me a lot of Opie, a.k.a. Ron Howard), in addition to that bland profile, also does little to reinforce any of Obama's perceived strengths (he chose the establishment candidate and is a white male) or to strengthen areas of perceived weakness (national security). Thus, while Bayh makes a lot of sense on the surface and could prove a brilliant tactical choice, his prospects for occupying the Naval Observatory are only so-so.

*UPDATE* In an interview with NBC's Andrea Mitchell, Sen. Bayh said yesterday for the first time that he would say "yes" to an Obama offer of the Vice Presidency. So, there's that...not exactly earth-shattering, but the first non-Biden contender to state flatly he'd take the slot.