VP? Maybe Somewhere Over the Rainbow

Nodding to the exceptional format Newsweek's Andrew Romano uses in his Stumper blog series "Veepwatch," linked above, I'd like to take my first foray into the question of who future President Obama should chose to serve as his Vice President with a look at the Governor from the Mediocre State of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius.

Name: Kathleen Sebelius

Age: 60

Resume: Two-term governor of red state Kansas, daughter of former Ohio Gov. John Gilligan.

Source of Speculation: Any Democrat elected twice to statewide office in a red state (and believe me, folks, Kansas is a darker scarlet than even our beloved Buckeyes) was bound to receive a great deal of attention for this spot. Picking Sebelius would put Obama's message of being a post-partisan candidate front and center, and reinforce the "change" message by placing a female Washington outsider on the ticket. By giving the party's response to President Bush's last State of the Union address, and following that up with a nationwide speaking tour on behalf of Sen. Obama, Sebelius very much inserted her name into the national Vice Presidential discussion.

Backstory: Governor Sebelius is one of the truly unique stories in American politics today. A non-native Kansan, she has nonetheless succeeded in winning two terms as the state's governor with a political agenda and resume far to the left of her constituents. Crossing the aisle to achieve success has been the hallmark of her tenure in the Kansas governor's mansion; her Lt. Gov., in fact, is a former Republican she persuaded to switch parties and serve in her administration.

During her tenure as Kansas governor, Sebelius has not shied away from criticizing the Bush administration (as she did following the administration's poor reaction following deadly tornadoes in the state). If called on to serve as an attack dog, this track record of being able to criticize the right without seeming too lefty will serve her well.

Sebelius was an early backer of Obama, and merits special consideration on that count. Additionally, her status as a powerful female leader may well help Obama heal the rift in the party between his coalition ("wine set" Dems and blacks) and the Hillary group so prevalent in Ohio (the "beer set" and older women).

The wild card in Sebelius' hand is Obama's background. McCain will attempt to paint Barack Obama as a lefty nut, out of touch with the values of middle America. Obama's narrative, though, is powerful medicine capable of defeating this particular viral attack. He grew up in Kansas, and was raised by all-American grandparents (a WWII vet and Rosie the Riveter stand-in). As Kansas governor, Sebelius helps underscore this narrative, and while she won't win him Kansas, she might help reassure voters troubled by his race or strange last name.

Ohio Connection: Sebelius' Ohio connections are many. She is the daughter of popular former Governor John Gilligan (late of a Hamilton County school board), and sister to John Gilligan, a principal in the powerful Columbus law firm of Schottenstein, Zox, and Dunn. She also served as the keynote speaker at this year's state Democratic Party Dinner, and has thus laid the groundwork with local officials and the party's passionate base in the state for her run.

Odds: 50 to 1. There are a number of issues facing Sebelius in her quest to serve as the most powerful woman in the history of the United States. First among these is this: she's not Hillary Clinton. The primary fight in Ohio was long and ugly, and resulted in splitting the party into two warring factions. While the healing process is underway, there are still very deep wounds out there in the camp that felt Hillary was experienced and talented, and lost only because of her sex. Picking Sebelius would debunk that particular problem, but would have the equal and opposite effect of inflaming Hillary voters who feel that if any woman should be a national leader, it should be her. This is frankly a hard-headed and pointless position, but it nonetheless a reality, and one that will make it very difficult for Obama to sell a non-Hillary woman as his Veep.

In addition to the Hillary question, Sebelius suffers from another fatal flaw for Vice Presidential candidates: she's too nice. She gives the affect of a kindly grandmother or aunt, whose sternest moment might involve a raising an eyebrow before giving you your fifth cookie. Fair or not, the stereotype is that Vice Presidents must serve as attack dogs, and be able to effectively wound the other candidate without tying the hurtful blow directly to the head of the ticket. Sebelius appears to lack that killer instinct.

Lastly, while she is a supremely competent executive, Sebelius lacks the "wow" factor that makes for an effective national candidate at this point in her career. Her speeches simply echo stock points, and her vocal patterns bring to mind a third grade math teacher rather than a soaring orator. While Vice Presidents aren't often called upon to speak (see: Quayle, Dan), the campaign is one time where they are. Obama's own soaring rhetoric might well make up for this particular deficiency, and choosing Sebelius would show that Obama values substance over flash.

In the final analysis, though, there seems to be too much stacked against Sebelius to warrant placing her in the national ticket. My bold prediction is that she will be offered a prominent position in the Obama administration (perhaps in the mold of former EPA director and New Jersey governor Christine Todd Whitman), but not THE position so coveted in this summer doldrums season.